How Many People Die From the Flu Every Year
Seasonal flu kills between 290,000 and 650,000 people a year, up to 1,780 a day. Who is at risk, how bad seasons compare, and what the vaccine does.
Picture the first cold week of January in a busy hospital. The emergency department has a queue of ambulances outside. On one ward, almost every bed has the same story: an older man who "just had a cold" four days ago and now cannot catch his breath, a woman with diabetes whose blood sugar has gone haywire since her fever started, a care home resident who stopped eating. The staff are tired, and several of them are off sick with the same thing.
This happens every winter, in almost every country with a winter. Most people think of flu as a few miserable days in bed. For most people it is. But each year it also quietly kills hundreds of thousands of people, and in a bad year, far more than most diseases that make headlines.
The headline number
The World Health Organization estimates that seasonal influenza causes 290,000 to 650,000 respiratory deaths every year worldwide. That range comes from a major study led by the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and published in The Lancet in 2018, and it is still the standard reference.
At the top of the range, that is about 1,780 deaths a day. At the bottom, about 800. All of those deaths are part of the roughly 62 million that happen each year from every cause, which you can watch in real time on our live death counter.
| Time period | Lower estimate | Upper estimate |
|---|---|---|
| Per minute | 0.6 | 1.2 |
| Per hour | 33 | 74 |
| Per day | 800 | 1,780 |
| Per week | 5,600 | 12,500 |
| Per month | 24,000 | 54,000 |
| Per year | 290,000 | 650,000 |
Our seasonal flu page uses the upper figure of 650,000 for its running count. We use the full range here because flu is unusually variable from one year to the next, and because the true toll is hard to pin down.
Why flu deaths are so hard to count
Very few flu deaths are recorded as flu. An older person with heart disease catches influenza, develops pneumonia, and dies a week later of a heart attack or respiratory failure. Their death certificate may say pneumonia, heart failure or stroke, with no mention of flu at all. Many people are never tested.
So instead of counting death certificates, researchers estimate flu deaths statistically. They look at how many more people die during flu season than would normally be expected, then work out how much of that excess is linked to flu.
| Way flu kills | What happens |
|---|---|
| Viral pneumonia | The flu virus itself infects and damages the lungs |
| Secondary bacterial pneumonia | Bacteria invade lungs already weakened by flu |
| Heart attacks and strokes | Inflammation from infection strains the heart and blood vessels |
| Worsening chronic illness | Flu tips people with COPD, heart failure or diabetes into crisis |
| Sepsis | Infection spreads and the body's response damages organs |
The heart link is striking. Studies have found that the risk of a heart attack rises several times over in the week after a confirmed flu infection. That is one reason flu deaths are undercounted, and why flu vaccination is recommended for people with heart disease. We look at the bacterial pneumonia link in how many people die from pneumonia every day and at the final infection pathway in how many people die from sepsis every day.
Who flu kills
Flu infects people of every age, and children are often the ones who spread it fastest. But deaths fall overwhelmingly on the oldest and the most vulnerable.
| Group | Why they are at higher risk |
|---|---|
| Adults over 65 | Weaker immune response; more chronic illness |
| Adults over 75 | The highest death rates of any age group |
| Children under 5 | Small airways and immature immune systems |
| Pregnant women | Changes to the immune system, heart and lungs |
| People with heart or lung disease | Flu worsens existing conditions |
| People with diabetes | Infection disrupts blood sugar control |
| People with weakened immunity | Cancer treatment, HIV, organ transplants |
| Care home residents | Age, frailty and close contact |
In high-income countries, the CDC estimates that people aged 65 and over usually account for somewhere between 70% and 85% of seasonal flu deaths. Globally, the 2018 Lancet study found the highest death rates among people over 75 and in sub-Saharan Africa, where access to care is weakest. Our 70 to 84 age group page and 85 and over page show how infections fit into mortality at the oldest ages.
Children are a smaller share of deaths, but flu is still a serious illness for them. Globally, tens of thousands of children under five are thought to die from flu-related respiratory illness each year, most of them in poorer countries.
Good years and bad years
What makes flu different from almost every other cause of death is how much it swings. The virus changes every year, and some seasons are far worse than others. The United States has the most detailed season-by-season estimates.
| US flu season | Estimated deaths (CDC) |
|---|---|
| Mildest seasons since 2010 | ~5,000 to 12,000 |
| 2017 to 2018 (severe) | ~52,000 |
| 2020 to 2021 (pandemic restrictions) | Very low; flu almost vanished |
| Typical recent season | Tens of thousands |
| 2024 to 2025 (high severity) | Roughly 27,000 to 130,000 (preliminary range) |
The CDC estimates that between 2010 and 2023, flu caused somewhere between about 5,000 and 52,000 deaths a year in the United States alone. The 2024 to 2025 season was classed as high severity across all age groups, with one of the highest hospitalisation rates in more than a decade.
The UK sees the same swings. In a severe winter like 2017 to 2018, official estimates suggested more than 20,000 flu-related deaths in England. In a mild one, the figure can be a few thousand. You can see how deaths pile up each winter in why winter kills more people than summer, and how the overall UK death count works in how many people die in the UK every day.
The 2020 to 2021 season is fascinating in its own right. Lockdowns, masks, closed schools and halted travel made seasonal flu nearly disappear in many countries. One whole lineage of flu B, known as Yamagata, has not been confirmed in circulation since early 2020 and may have gone extinct.
When flu becomes a pandemic
Seasonal flu is the steady background. Every few decades, a new strain appears that most people have no immunity to at all, and the result is a pandemic.
| Pandemic | Estimated deaths worldwide |
|---|---|
| 1918 "Spanish flu" | ~50 million (estimates range from 17 to 100 million) |
| 1957 "Asian flu" | ~1 to 2 million |
| 1968 "Hong Kong flu" | ~1 to 4 million |
| 2009 "Swine flu" | ~150,000 to 575,000 in the first year |
The 1918 pandemic stands apart. It killed more people than the First World War, and unusually, it hit young healthy adults especially hard. It still sits near the top of the deadliest pandemics in history.
The 2009 pandemic was far milder than feared, though it still killed many younger people. Health authorities today watch bird flu, especially the H5N1 strain that has spread through wild birds, poultry and, since 2024, dairy cattle in the United States, for any sign that it could start spreading easily between humans. So far it has not.
What the flu vaccine actually does
The flu vaccine is updated every year to match the strains expected to circulate. It is not perfect. The CDC estimates that in seasons where the vaccine matches circulating strains well, it reduces the risk of needing medical care for flu by roughly 40% to 60%.
That sounds modest, but across a population it prevents huge numbers of illnesses, hospital stays and deaths. Even when vaccinated people do catch flu, studies suggest their illness tends to be less severe.
| Who is usually offered a free flu vaccine in the UK | Why |
|---|---|
| Everyone aged 65 and over | Highest risk of death |
| People with long-term health conditions | Flu can make conditions much worse |
| Pregnant women | Protects mother and newborn baby |
| Young children (nasal spray) | Children spread flu to older relatives |
| Care home residents and carers | Close contact, high frailty |
| Frontline health and social care workers | Protects patients and keeps services running |
Exact eligibility changes slightly from year to year, so check current NHS guidance. Other countries have similar programmes. The underlying logic is the same everywhere: protect the people most likely to die, and slow the spread among the people most likely to pass it on.
Antiviral drugs such as oseltamivir also help, especially for high-risk patients, if they are started early in the illness.
How flu compares
| Cause | Approx. deaths per day |
|---|---|
| Pneumonia and lower respiratory infections | ~7,100 |
| Tuberculosis | ~3,400 |
| Road injuries | ~3,250 |
| Seasonal flu (upper estimate) | ~1,780 |
| HIV/AIDS | ~1,730 |
| Malaria | ~1,640 |
| Seasonal flu (lower estimate) | ~800 |
At its upper estimate, flu kills roughly as many people as HIV or malaria. The difference is that flu deaths are bunched into a few winter months in each hemisphere, so the toll during a bad flu season can be several times higher than the daily average suggests. You can put flu head to head with other causes in our compare causes tool.
Is it flu or a cold?
The two are often confused, but flu is usually much worse. A cold creeps in over a day or two with a runny nose and sore throat. Flu tends to hit suddenly, with a high temperature, aching muscles, exhaustion and a dry cough. Many people say they could not get out of bed.
Most healthy adults recover in a week or two. The warning signs that need urgent help include difficulty breathing, chest pain, confusion, severe weakness, or a fever that improves and then returns, which can be a sign of bacterial pneumonia. Older adults and anyone with a long-term condition should seek advice early.
While you were reading this
You have spent about 12 minutes with this article. In that time, somewhere between 10 and 22 people have died of flu, depending on which end of the estimate you trust, and in the depths of a bad winter the true figure would be several times higher. Most of them were over 65. Many of them had a heart or lung condition that the virus pushed over the edge.
You can see how those deaths fit into the global picture on our live death counter and on the deaths today page. To see how your own lifestyle affects your long-term risk, try the Death Clock.
Flu is so familiar that it is easy to dismiss. That familiarity is part of what makes it dangerous. It returns every year, it changes every year, and every year it finds the people least able to fight it off. A vaccine that takes five minutes is still one of the simplest ways to make sure it does not find you.
Data sources: World Health Organization influenza fact sheets, Iuliano et al. (The Lancet, 2018), US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention burden of flu estimates, UK Health Security Agency and Public Health England surveillance reports, published historical estimates for past influenza pandemics. Figures are rounded and represent the most recent available estimates; daily and per-minute figures are derived from annual totals, and the 2024 to 2025 US figure is a preliminary range. This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute medical advice. Check current national guidance for flu vaccine eligibility.
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